That ranks 17th among starting quarterbacks.Īs The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin pointed out, the Chiefs throw the ball on early downs more often than any team in the league. Wilson, meanwhile, is throwing into tight windows 14.7% of the time. It’s a testament to the scheme working, his teammates getting open and Mahomes’ mastery of the offense, consistently knowing where to go with the ball. That’s the second-lowest rate in the NFL, behind only Drew Brees. Just 10.8% of Mahomes’ throws have been into tight windows. Next Gen Stats tracks aggressiveness to measure how often a quarterback has to throw into tight windows - defined as having a defender within 1 yard of the receiver. The Chiefs’ scheme helps Mahomes more than the Seahawks’ scheme helps Wilson. Wilson ranks 17th 8.79% of his passing plays have resulted in negative plays. For all of the spectacular plays he makes, he’s also been the least mistake-prone QB in the NFL through five weeks. That’s remarkable when you think about it. Mahomes is at 4.29%, the lowest of any QB in the league. I looked at each quarterback’s negative plays (sacks, fumbles, interceptions) and divided by their number of passing snaps to come up with a negative play percentage. For what it’s worth, all 13 of Wilson’s sacks have come on plays where he’s held the ball for at least three seconds seven have come when he’s held the ball for at least four seconds. The tradeoff there is that he’s going to be responsible for some sacks also. He’s one of the best at escaping pressure and keeping plays alive. But Wilson is always going to take a lot of sacks. Sacks can be due to a number of factors: an offensive lineman getting beaten in pass protection, a quarterback holding on to the ball too long, a wide receiver not adjusting his route, etc. Wilson has taken 13 sacks Mahomes seven.īefore Seahawks fans yell at me, I will acknowledge that the Chiefs have a better offensive line. Wilson has fumbled three times Mahomes twice. Neither quarterback has thrown an interception. There’s no perfect way to quantify decision-making, so for our purposes we’ll look at negative plays. In terms of overall accuracy, Wilson has been better. Mahomes’ expected completion percentage is 62.9%, and his actual completion percentage is 65.6% for a difference of 2.8%. That’s the top differential among quarterbacks. Wilson has an expected completion percentage of 62.5% and an actual completion percentage of 73.1% for a difference of 10.5%. We can then look at a quarterback’s actual completion percentage to see how it compares. They track expected completion percentage, which measures the probability of every pass attempt, based on where the receiver is, how much separation he has, how close the nearest defender is to the quarterback and other factors. With Next Gen Stats, we are able to go a little deeper into the accuracy numbers. Wilson’s 73.1% completion percentage is third in the NFL, while Mahomes is at 65.6% (18th). But how do they compare in different areas statistically? Let’s take a look. So far this season, both quarterbacks have been playing at an MVP-caliber level. The scenario never got close to happening as the Chiefs selected Mahomes 10th overall. The Athletic’s Mike Sando reported at the time that Seattle would have considered taking Mahomes with the 26th pick in the first round even though it already had Russell Wilson. Going into the 2017 draft, the Seahawks were big fans of Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs run defense has not been very good statistically so this seems like one of those fluky stats.Stats are courtesy of Sportradar unless otherwise noted. Both rushing touchdowns this season came against the Raiders in their first meeting a few weeks ago. Interestingly, the 2013 Chiefs defense is next in line with seven rushing touchdowns allowed last season. The Chiefs should beat the franchise record of six rushing touchdowns allowed, accomplished by the 19 Chiefs defense. The NFL record for fewest rushing touchdowns allowed is two, set by four different teams (none since 1971). This stat will be challenged in Week 16 against the Steelers and Le'Veon Bell. The Chiefs have allowed just two rushing touchdowns The Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for over 300 yards in six of the past seven games. Except the Chiefs offense, whose last 300-yard day came two years ago. But the Chiefs will certainly take it in an age where it seems like everyone is throwing for 300 yards. The Chiefs have not allowed a 300-yard passerĪdding in context - the Chiefs defense is 31st in the NFL in yards per rushing attempt - and this stat doesn't seem as nice. You won't stop hearing this until the draft either. I'm sure you have heard this about a million times in the last two weeks. The Chiefs do not have a touchdown pass to a receiver yet
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